Well, it’s been more than a couple of weeks but back by popular demand!, it’s the State of the NFL rundown. The temperature gauges may have dropped since our last look at the League but that only means the proverbial heat and pressure have been turned up! November and December are when championship caliber teams hope to begin coming into playoff form so seeing as Turkey Day is right around the corner, let’s see which teams are ready to feast and which are turkeys, ripe for stuffing!
Top Team: Atlanta Falcons Talk about a tough race to call! Nothing embodies the week to week nature of this league more so than trying to pick out the definitive top dog after 9 games have been played. 4 teams were on my radar heading into last week’s games and, thankfully, the results provided some clarity. The Falcons were impressive on a short week, winning Thursday night against Baltimore. In what felt like and could quite possibly be a SBXLV preview, Matt Ryan one-upped an impressive TD drive by Flacco with one of his own (against the mighty Ravens defense) to secure the game winning TD. Ryan is playing at a Manning-Brady-Brees efficiency level, averaging 251.7 YPG and a TD/INT ratio just under 4:1. He’s also an incredible career 18-1 in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome. However, where the Dirty Birds are really getting it done is on defense side of the ball, ranking 8th in scoring D and 7th against the rush. As a team, Atlanta is 2nd in the league in Turnover Differential at +9. (More on this later) With only 2 losses, an unblemished home and division record, favorable road matchups and a Week 17 home date against the Saints, Atlanta is in the drivers seat in the NFC. Almost but show me more: Patriots, Jets, Eagles
Bottom Rung: Cincinnati Bengals It’s obvious Buffalo and Carolina are the 2 worst teams in the League and will be duke-ing it out for the first pick in 2011 NFL Draft (Andrew Luck?) My bottom rung is reserved for a team that has VASTLY underperformed expectations given previous results and talent levels. No team fits that description more so than the Bungles. The struggles of the Vikings and Cowboys have been well documented but neither of those teams are riding a 6 game losing streak with 1 of their 2 wins over the lowly Panthers. While a regression was expected after sweeping the AFC North last year, the Men in Stripes are 1-2 in the division and an abysmal 1-4 at home. Seeing as Dallas has already made a significant change and a full scale overhaul is on the horizon in Minny, no team has more uncertainty than the Bengals. The lone bright spot: during their 6 game slide, 5 have been by less than a TD. What cure’s all? A Week 11 home game against the Bills! Almost worst: Texans, Cardinals, Vikings
BUY: Oakland Raiders Yep, buy the Black and Silver. For a team that hasn’t tasted playoff glory since a SBXXXVII waxing in 2002, the Tom Cable led Raiders may take owner Al Davis back to the promised land. My BUY target was between the Raiders and their rivals from SoCal, the San Diego Chargers, and even now as I write this, it’s tough to call! Raiders have a tough remaining schedule but have a leg up on the Chargers in the division, 3-0 vs. 0-2, 1 coming head-to-head, in Oaktown. The are also 2nd in the League in rushing, 7th in scoring offense, 12th in scoring defense and 2nd against the pass. What gives Oakland the edge is their ability to run the ball and near even Turnover Differential, +1 (There it is again!) The Chargers rank 30th in the league at -9 which to me is a deal breaker, eventually giving the other team more opportunities is going to bite you in the butt. Heat Check: Saints, Chargers, 49ers
HOLD: Pittsburgh Steelers I combed the league for a true SELL but no team really felt over bought. However, there is need for caution in the City of Steel so I’m going to downgrade to HOLD status. Did the Patriots expose the Steelers at home or what? While their 39-26 drubbing may be singled out as the beginning of another late season slide, the Black & Yellow were already showing cracks in the foundation weeks prior. A poor showing on Halloween against the Saints and a lackluster, yet victorious, match up against the Bengals showcased this teams true flaw; their offense. As great as this D has been, (5th in points against, 1st in rush D, 3 in TO Diff.) offensive ineptitude will only take you so far. Middle to back of the pack averages in all categories, Sunday night’s game showed that both defense and offense are necessary to hang with the big boys. This team hasn’t been playing its best ball but with a D that good and a QB that is 3 games behind his counterparts rounding into form, the Steel Curtain could regain its rigidity. Keep an eye on the Raiders visit to Pittsburgh this weekend, they were the team that triggered the Black & Yellow’s downfall last season.
Getting the ball “in space”: This is by no means a groundbreaking revelation on my behalf but having closely watched 2 teams (the Longhorns & Cowboys) struggle & succeed at the mercy of such this season, I cannot stress the importance of Turnover Differential (there it is!) in the game of football. Take a look at my Top Teams: Eagles, Falcons, Patriots, are all in the Top 5 in the League. Other Division leaders/SB contenders: Steelers, Packers, Jets, Colts are in the Top 10 as well. Teams having better than expected years: Bucs, Skins, Chiefs, Bears, Rams, Lions, Seahawks, Browns, all have + Turnover differentials. Bottom 5 in the League: Vikings, Panthers, Chargers, Cardinals, Bills. Hmmmmm! Like I said, not Lombardi/Walsh/Belichick level stuff here but something has to be said about the success and failure of teams being tied to their ability to create and minimize turnovers.
2 Minute Drill:
Everyone is talking about Mike Vick, and rightfully so, after a career performance against a decent Redskins defense on MNF. What stands out to me: 0 INTS.
Jason Garrett is going to be the Cowboys Head Coach at the start of next season. Along with many more seasons after that.
Note to the Browns: Colt McCoy and don’t look back!
Bears are pretenders, Miami gets the win at home tonight.
TO griping about McNabb’s money, just mad you aren’t getting it like that Terrell?
Tell me one division full of teams that respect each other less than those in the AFC West.
49ers win the NFC West. BOOK IT!
Until next week, thanks for reading! I hope it was worth the minutes in your day!
As always hear more on my weekly radio show Sports on the Hump Day from 8-9 PM 91.7FM KVRX Austin or www.kvrx.org or follow along on Twitter @KVRXSports and be sure to enjoy your football Thursday, Saturday, Sunday & Monday!
- Tyler A. Denning
